takes into account the political cycle factors, the 2012 election or change in some countries, thereby promoting the growth or become the first option politicians. In recent years economic development track display, global economic "rebalancing" process, accompanied by the austerity and recession, although the leaders had "rebalancing" to reach a consensus, but to stimulate growth, is also a choice they can not give up policy. How to "rebalance" and "growth" between "balance", is a political problem, not optimal, two policy goals, only the second best.
if the RMB appreciation period ends, China economy will appear new characteristics.
monetary data show, "rebalancing" and achieved certain results. In October China Waihuizhankuan negative growth of 24892000000 yuan, for the first time in 4 years of negative growth. Foreign exchange reserves of negative growth, means that the monetary base stock reduction, inflationary pressures are receding.
foreign exchange reserves representation is negative growth, trade surplus decreased gradually, the outflow of capital increase. These signs, Chinese achieve to the trade balance has been achieved results. Given the global trade in a certain period of time to recover to pre crisis levels, China rapid export growth is almost impossible, Waihuizhankuan negative growth or indicates that RMB appreciation cycle is coming to an end.
China economic decline, but the overall look, the economic slowdown or policy results. The PMI preview Chinese November HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index HSBC released the value fell sharply to 48, the highest since 2009 March since the 32 month low, cause economic circles shock. But according to the analysis of China HSBC chief economist Qu Hongbin,[url=http://ozsky.org/nfljerseys.html]cheap jerseys china[/url], small and medium enterprises index and the employment index is not less than 50 resulted in the decline of PMI due to the decline in external demand, domestic demand, is mainly affected by the upstream enterprises. If the guest view, this change means that the economic adjustment effect, need not get excited over a little thing. Of course, the real estate bubble burst, inflation was restrained condition, economic growth has become quite important.
by the end of the year, the global economy is facing a tough choice. Is to continue to "rebalance", or the promotion of growth, has become a government urgent choice.
Chinese economic using ultra loose policy growth after 2009,[url=http://www.pioneer.ca/images/Branding/uggaustraliajp.html]?? ??????[/url], economic structure imbalance, leading to more serious inflation, asset bubbles, and then slow down Chinese economic "rebalancing" process. But the continuous decline in external demand Daobi China economic transformation, anti inflation to accelerate the appreciation of the renminbi, which makes China economic restructuring has made certain progress in the new round of macro-control.
since 2005 July, the reform of the RMB exchange rate, RMB in using two methods to the equilibrium exchange rate approach, one is the nominal exchange rate appreciation, inflation is the former two, to speed up the appreciation of the renminbi, which is intended to reduce the appreciation of space. Inflation has become a nominal appreciation of RMB to reduce cost, and the cost was increased Chinese economic imbalances. Now look, surplus factor puzzle China economy eased, China economy to health development.